Four hard truths about capitalism and climate - Steve Howard

How can capitalism help solve climate change? I'm Steve Howard and vice chair sustainability, a global investment firm tasek. I've been wrestling with this question for about three decades. I was formerly, I was chief sustainability officer of Ikea. I've helped set up several climate change organizations. We made business coalition, the climate group and recently tilt collective. And I've come to conclusions that there are some real hard truths.

资本主义如何助力解决气候变化问题？我是史蒂夫·霍华德，全球投资公司tasek的可持续发展副主席。三十年来，我一直在思考这个问题。我曾是宜家的首席可持续发展官，还协助成立了多个气候变化组织，如伟商联盟、气候组织，以及最近的tilt collective。我得出了一些残酷的事实。

The first hard truth: Every business is a machine. They are hard-wired and soft-wired to do what they do. That's why they're really good at it.

第一个残酷的事实是：每家企业就像一台机器。它们在硬件和软件层面都被设定好去做特定的事，所以它们才如此擅长于此。

Let me give you an example. About fifteen years ago, I sat in the headquarters of a global car manufacturer with their chief technology officer. I said to him, surely the future is electric vehicles. He slapped the table and said never while I am CTO, will we make an electric vehicle? Now he's absolutely right, because he's no longer CTO.

举个例子，大约15年前，我和一家全球汽车制造商的首席技术官坐在其公司总部。我对他说，未来肯定是电动汽车的天下。他拍着桌子说，只要我还是首席技术官，我们就绝不会生产电动汽车！现在看来他说得没错，因为他已不再担任首席技术官。

Amazingly enough, I got a taxi the other day in one of that company's electric vehicles, but it's very easy to make that about him and his leadership. But I realized that day that in the buildings around us, there were hundreds of proud, skilled engineers who'd spent their careers making ever better internal combustion engines.

令人惊讶的是，前几天我坐出租车，坐的就是那家公司生产的电动汽车。人们很容易将此事归咎于他和他的领导方式。但那天我意识到，在我们周围的大楼里，有数百名自豪且技艺精湛的工程师，他们一生都在致力于制造更出色的内燃机。

The company had spent a hundred years perfecting global supply chains for spark plugs and carburetors. This was an internal combustion engine vehicle company. And change for companies like these is incredibly hard. 这家公司花了一百年时间完善火花塞和化油器的全球供应链。这是一家以内燃机汽车为主的公司。对于这样的公司而言，做出改变极其困难。

And many companies, from manufacturing to technology and even finance, are hard-wired and soft-wired to do what they do. Now, of course, there are exceptions, but they are exactly that. They are exceptions. And we're sorely mistaken if we think all companies will change themselves by themselves.

许多公司，从制造业到科技行业，甚至金融行业，都在硬件和软件层面被设定好去做特定的事。当然，也有例外，但它们只是少数。如果我们认为所有公司都会自行改变，那就大错特错了。

My second truth is that financial markets are incredibly short - term. The leader of a private bank said to me recently, Steve, I've never met a long - term investor. A Hedge fund leader said to me, Steve, you have to remember we're profit - seeking creatures.

我的第二个事实是，金融市场目光极其短浅。一家私人银行的负责人最近对我说，史蒂夫，我从未见过长期投资者。一位对冲基金负责人告诉我，史蒂夫，你得记住，我们是逐利的。

I wake up in the morning and think, how much profit will I make today? I go to bed at night and think, how much profit did I make? So markets are baked in to pursue short - term profit over long - term value creation. The other thing is the free market has had a free ride.

我早上醒来就想，我今天能赚多少钱？晚上睡觉前也在想，我今天赚了多少钱？所以市场天生就追求短期利润，而非长期价值创造。另外，自由市场一直处于放任状态。

If you asked an economist in the room, they would talk about externalities. It's external to the market, but it's not external to people and the planet. These are the costs that are born. Of the impacts on nature of pollution, the destruction of our habitats, the impact on human health and, of course, the dramatically escalating costs of climate change. They're not priced into the market. The companies don't pay the bill.

如果你问在场的经济学家，他们会提到外部性。这对市场来说是外部因素，但对人类和地球而言并非如此。这些是我们必须承担的代价，包括污染对自然的影响、栖息地的破坏、对人类健康的影响，当然还有气候变化带来的急剧上升的成本。这些并没有被计入市场价格。企业现在不用为此买单。

Now economists can debate the exact number, but we know they're in the trillions of dollars the Bill's mostly unpaid, and it's rising by the day. 经济学家们可以争论具体的数字，但我们知道这些成本高达数万亿美元，而且大部分尚未支付，并且每天都在增加。

So how do we go from short - term to long - term? It's a difficult thing to do, but if you're a long - term investor, a large asset owner, a pension fund, a Sovereign wealth fund, an endowment, a family office, then you're exposed to the total economy.

那么我们如何从短期转向长期呢？这并非易事，但如果你是长期投资者、大型资产所有者、养老基金、主权财富基金、捐赠基金、家族办公室，那么你就与整个经济息息相关。

The best guarantee of your long - term financial success is economic growth itself. And we know an inclusive, resilient economy, where we tackle climate change, is the one with the best economic growth.

长期财务成功的最佳保障就是经济增长本身。我们知道，一个包容且有韧性的经济体，也就是我们应对气候变化的经济体，才是经济增长最佳的经济体。

Again, the numbers have been run time and time again on the impacts of unabated climate change. Cambridge university did one recently. Their estimate was unabated. Climate change will wipe out a quarter of global GDP. That's five, covid pandemics and it's a pandemic that doesn't go away.

关于气候变化不受控制所带来的影响，已经进行了无数次数据测算。剑桥大学最近做了一项研究。他们估计，不受控制的气候变化将使全球国内生产总值减少四分之一。这相当于五次新冠疫情的影响，而且这是一场不会消失的“大流行病”。

So if you're a long - term investor, if you're an asset allocator, a principal owner of capital. It's in your interest to invest in solving climate change, not just in the easy things to do, but in the hard things to do with conviction capital.

所以，如果你是长期投资者，如果你是资产配置者、主要资本所有者，投资解决气候变化问题符合你的利益，不仅要投资容易做到的事，还要带着坚定的资金去投资困难的事。

Now at tasek we are a longer - term investor. We've just had our fiftieth anniversary. Our purpose is so that every generation prospers. We have Stakes in some of the companies today that were the companies that we had when we started fifty years ago.

现在，tasek是一家长期投资者。我们刚刚庆祝了成立五十周年。我们的目标是让每一代人都繁荣昌盛。我们现在持有一些公司的股份，这些公司也是我们五十年前创立时就持有的。

But in order to align ourselves with climate change, we had to rewire ourselves. We had to measure carbon portfolio emissions, set carbon budgets, put an internal carbon pricing, align our staff incentives with success, set those targets, engage all our portfolio companies.

但为了与应对气候变化的目标保持一致，我们必须自我调整。我们必须测量投资组合的碳排放，设定碳预算，制定内部碳价格，将员工激励与成功挂钩，设定目标，并与我们所有的投资组合公司合作。

And then we had to realign our strategies, reskill our investment teams invest in new partnerships and new platform companies so that we had the capabilities to invest in the sustainable businesses of today and tomorrow.

然后我们必须重新调整战略，对投资团队进行技能再培训，投资新的合作伙伴关系和新的平台公司，以便我们有能力投资于当今和未来的可持续业务。

Now, our portfolio of sustainability - aligned investments is 40 billion Singapore dollars, up a lot from a few billion just a few years ago. It's growing and it's a start. This is a journey we're on but we're well on the way.

现在，我们与可持续发展相关的投资组合价值400亿新加坡元，比几年前的几十亿大幅增长。它还在不断增长，这只是一个开始。我们正在踏上这段旅程，而且已经取得了良好进展。

The third truth? Policy is a master switch. If we want to level the playing field for climate technologies, we need long, loud legal policies.

第三个事实是什么呢？政策是一个总开关。如果我们想为气候技术创造公平的竞争环境，我们就需要长期、明确且具有法律效力的政策。

This can unlock the investment and get innovators innovating. Long if you have a technology that takes 10 years to develop, there's no use having a policy that's just one year long, you need it to last a full investment cycle. The policy must be loud. The signal must be unmissable.

这可以释放投资，让创新者勇于创新。如果一项技术需要十年才能研发出来，那么一年期的政策毫无用处，政策必须持续整个投资周期。政策必须明确，发出的信号必须清晰无误。

Legal means it must have teeth compliance can't be optional. Now, most businesses don't embrace policies, but they want clarity, they want a level playing field. And we know if we want a free market to be a fair market policy is a master switch.

具有法律效力意味着必须有强制执行力，合规不能是可选项。现在，大多数企业并不欢迎政策，但他们希望政策清晰明了，希望有一个公平的竞争环境。我们知道，如果想让自由市场成为公平市场，政策就是总开关。

And in this environment we could say actually we need all the countries, we need large country to policy and not to roll them back. But actually, whether you're a city, a state, a smaller country policy can be hugely powerful.

在这种环境下，我们可以说，实际上我们需要所有国家，尤其是大国制定政策，且不要倒退。但实际上，无论你是一个城市、一个州还是一个小国，政策都可能发挥巨大作用。

Let's take the Singapore Co two tax, the carbon tax in Singapore. Thus provided a price signal. It priced an externality by putting a price on carbon. It's allowed the businesses in Singapore, including many of our portfolio companies, to turn long - term targets into concrete actions and plans to decarbonize their business. They can create the business case because of that carbon price.

以新加坡的二氧化碳税，即碳税为例。它提供了一个价格信号，通过对碳排放定价来衡量外部性。这使得新加坡的企业，包括我们投资组合中的许多公司，能够将长期目标转化为具体行动和计划，以实现企业脱碳。由于这个碳价格，他们可以制定商业计划。

It's also had a link to global carbon markets and global carbon markets are going to be increasingly important over the next decade because you can meet some of your obligation for the tax with international carbon credits, so it's allowed our own platform company, janiero, to invest with greater confidence in projects that are removing and reducing emissions elsewhere, nature - based solutions forest restoration projects.

它还与全球碳市场建立了联系，在未来十年，全球碳市场将变得越来越重要，因为你可以用国际碳信用额度来履行部分纳税义务，这使得我们自己的平台公司janiero能够更有信心地投资于其他地方的减排项目，比如基于自然的解决方案——森林恢复项目。

Policy can be a carrot as well as a stick. In Singapore they went for super fast regulatory approval for plant - based proteins and cell - cultivated meats. If you're a startup, you measure time in days and weeks, not years, so being able to get to market quickly and meet your customers, test your products and get revenue in is invaluable.

政策既可以是大棒，也可以是胡萝卜。在新加坡，植物蛋白和细胞培育肉类的监管审批速度极快。如果你是一家初创企业，你是以天和周来计算时间，而不是以年为单位，所以能够快速进入市场、接触客户、测试产品并获得收入是非常宝贵的。

Singapore has become a hub for these companies now. But it's not just the startups that fast regulatory approval and good planning is a big boom. It's for big infrastructure projects as well. Why be tied up for years? If you can have effective fast planning, then it gets green shovels in the ground and green investment flowing.

新加坡现在已成为这些公司的中心。但快速的监管审批和良好的规划不仅对初创企业是个巨大的推动，对大型基础设施项目也是如此。为什么要被束缚数年呢？如果能有高效快速的规划，就能让绿色项目落地，让绿色投资流动起来。

My fourth truth is just a word. It's only one word, and it's a really important one. Better. I learned this when I was in Ikea and I'm going to give you an example.

我的第四个事实就一个词。虽然只有一个词，但却非常重要。那就是“更好”。我在宜家工作时学到了这一点，给大家举个例子。

When I started in Ikea, we had some LED lights. They were expensive, sales were limited and the light was still harsh and stark. But we knew because it was so much more energy efficient and the technology was developing, we knew they were the future. So we set a target for ourselves to go for 100% LEDs across the business.

我刚到宜家时，我们有一些LED灯。它们价格昂贵，销量有限，而且灯光刺眼。但我们知道，由于其能源效率高得多，且技术在不断发展，LED灯就是未来的趋势。所以我们为自己设定了一个目标，要在整个业务中实现100%使用LED灯。

We aligned all our investments with ever better LEDs. We communicated across the supply chains. We used our own purchasing power to secure finance for new factories and production lines.

我们将所有投资都与不断改进的LED灯挂钩。我们在供应链中进行沟通。我们利用自身的购买力为新工厂和生产线争取资金。

When we got to the LED that was not just energy efficient but was affordable with a great quality of light, the next best thing to daylight, they flew off the shelves. And we hit our target of being able to only sell LEDs from 2015.

当我们研发出不仅节能、价格亲民而且光线质量极佳，几乎可与自然光媲美的LED灯时，它们迅速畅销。我们实现了从2015年起只销售LED灯的目标。

When you get to better, you get scale really fast. So if you look at the total global lighting sector in 2010 it was less than 1% LEDs, more than 99% all the other types of light bulbs. By 2020 it was more than 60%. We flipped the entire sect global lighting sector that had been around for more than 100 years in a decade.

当产品变得更好时，规模扩张就会非常迅速。看看全球照明行业，2010年，LED灯的占比不到1%，其他类型灯泡的占比超过99%。到2020年，LED灯的占比超过了60%。我们在十年内彻底改变了这个已经存在了一百多年的全球照明行业。

When you get to better, you get to scale really fast. And we know that there are many other technologies that have got to better. They've moved from the green premium to the green discount.

当产品变得更好时，规模扩张就会非常迅速。我们知道，还有许多其他技术也变得更好了。它们已经从绿色溢价转变为绿色折扣。

Solar, wind, batteries storage is very exciting and when you get to better these technologies create platforms for business model innovation. Our impacting investing partner Leap Frog has invested in the startup in India.

太阳能、风能、电池储能都非常令人兴奋，当这些技术变得更好时，它们为商业模式创新创造了平台。我们有影响力的投资合作伙伴leapfrog投资了印度的一家初创企业。

It's a young startup. They're doing battery swapping stations for two Wheeler drivers and auto rickshaw drivers, so rather than have a long queue to refuel, you can drive in. In two minutes, your battery is swapped out. It's a fixed price. You can have a cup of chai you drive away.

这是一家年轻的初创公司，他们为两轮车司机和机动三轮车司机设立电池交换站，这样司机们无需排长队加油，开车进去两分钟就能换好电池，价格固定。司机们可以喝杯茶后就开车离开。

It's cleaner, it's cheaper, it's quieter, it's mechanically more efficient. The customers love it. They've got 75,000 drivers on their platform and growing. They're doing more than 3 million swaps a month.

这种方式更清洁、更便宜、更安静，机械效率也更高。顾客们很喜欢。他们的平台上已经有75000名司机，而且人数还在增加。他们每月的电池交换量超过300万次。

Now we know that there are many other areas where in emerging markets this business model innovation with these better technologies pay as you go. Solar is a great example, are there, but capital is scarce. We need capital allocators to allocate capital for emerging markets.

我们知道，在新兴市场的许多其他领域，这种随用随付的商业模式创新与这些更好的技术相结合。太阳能就是一个很好的例子，但资金稀缺。我们需要资本配置者为新兴市场分配资金。

The other area where it's really hard to find finance is for those technologies that haven't achieved full commercial parity year, the big industrial plants that are going for their first, second or third of a kind plant sustainable aviation fuel, green, hydrogen, green cement, green steel, those cell - cultivated meats and plant - based proteins.

另一个很难获得资金的领域是那些尚未实现完全商业平价的技术，比如那些正在建设首套、第二套或第三套设备的大型工厂，如可持续航空燃料、绿色氢能源、绿色水泥、绿色钢铁，以及那些细胞培育肉类和植物蛋白产业。

Now these industries, let's be clear, are the industries of the future. If you're an investor or a policymaker, you have to know they're the future and lean in behind them. And it will be greener, cheaper, better, faster, tastier future.

需要明确的是，这些产业是未来的产业。如果你是投资者或政策制定者，你必须明白它们代表着未来，并全力支持它们。未来将会更环保、更便宜、更优质、更快速、更美味。

Let's take one example. We have invested at Thomas for a long time in large real estate businesses. They're big users of steel, cement and concrete. If you take cement in the form of concrete, it's the second most abundant material we use after water 30 billion tons a year 8% of Co two.

举个例子。我们长期在托马斯公司投资大型房地产企业。这些企业是钢铁、水泥和混凝土的大量使用者。以混凝土形式存在的水泥，是我们使用量仅次于水的第二大材料，每年用量达300亿吨，其碳排放占比达8%。

It's hyper commoditized, very slim margins, lots of sunk capital in cement factories around the world. It's hard to innovate, hard to transform. We've invested in a company that's got an end of pipe solution.

水泥行业高度商品化，利润微薄，全球的水泥厂都有大量的沉没成本。这个行业很难创新，也很难转型。我们投资了一家公司，它有一种末端处理解决方案。

Basically, it's a bolt - on technology that captures the Co two that would otherwise cause climate change and pollute the atmosphere. It re - mineralizes it and incorporates it back in the cement so you get zero pollution and more cement.

基本上，这是一种附加技术，能够捕获原本会导致气候变化和大气污染的二氧化碳。它将二氧化碳重新矿化，并将其重新融入水泥中，这样就实现了零污染，还能生产更多水泥。

But you need patient capital behind these sort of companies. That company, alone's taken 100,000 hours of r and d on the technology, and it's going to need a lot of capital to roll that out across the cement industry.

但这类公司需要耐心的资本支持。仅这家公司就已经在这项技术上投入了10万小时的研发时间，要将其推广到整个水泥行业还需要大量资金。

I have an ask.

我有一个请求。

If you're a policymaker. Let's go for long, loud legal policy regimes. Let's make the free market a fair market. Let's price externalities.

如果你是政策制定者。让我们推行长期、明确且具有法律效力的政策体系。让我们把自由市场转变为公平市场。让我们为外部性定价。

But this is going to unlock a green industrial revolution in your economy is going to create the green jobs of the future, is going to future proof your economies.

因为这将在你的经济体系中开启一场绿色工业革命，创造未来的绿色就业机会，让你的经济具备未来适应性。

If you're an asset allocator or you influence one, if you're in a pension fund, if you're in an endowment, a family office, a Sovereign wealth fund elsewhere where you're allocating capital.

如果你是资产配置者，或者你能影响资产配置者，如果你就职于养老基金、捐赠基金、家族办公室、主权财富基金等负责配置资本的机构。

Take a pot of patient, long - term capital and put it behind climate change. Not just for the easy things to do, but for the hard things to do.

拿出一笔耐心的长期资金，投入到应对气候变化的事业中。不仅要投资容易做到的事，也要投资困难的事。

It's in your interest to do it and you'll be backing the industries of the future.

这样做符合你的利益，而且你将支持未来的产业。

I know many of the people in that sector and I am talking to you remember the us if you're an individual.

我认识这个领域的很多人，我现在对你们说，如果你是个人投资者，记住这一点。

Then, actually, maybe you have a pension or some savings. Look at your provider. Ask them what their climate allocation is.

那么，实际上，也许你有养老金或一些储蓄。看看你的资金管理机构。问问他们在气候相关方面的投资配置是怎样的。

If they don't have a great answer, move it somewhere else.

如果他们没有一个好的答案，就把资金转到别的地方。

If you're a business leader or an entrepreneur, embrace change, unlock opportunity and go for better.

如果你是企业领导者或企业家，要拥抱变化，抓住机遇，追求更好。

Now, this won't be easy, but we've used this playbook before. Good government policy and incentives, business innovation and investment.

这并不容易，但我们以前也用过类似的策略。良好的政府政策与激励措施、企业创新和投资。

We've ended acid rain. We've closed the ozone hole. We've harnessed the power of the sun and the wind to create the cheapest form of energy on the planet.

我们已经解决了酸雨问题。我们已经修复了臭氧层空洞。我们利用太阳能和风能，创造出了地球上最便宜的能源形式。

And we have 5 billion years of sun reserves. We've also lit a billion homes with leds.

而且我们还有50亿年的太阳能储备。我们还用LED灯照亮了10亿家庭。

And we have to remember, humanity wrote the rule book. We created all the markets. We allowed externalities. We write all the policies, we've built all the machines.

我们必须记住，规则是人类制定的。我们创造了所有的市场。我们允许外部性存在。我们制定所有政策，建造了所有的机器。

But if we rewire capitalism, we can help solve the climate change. Thank you.

但如果我们重塑资本主义，我们就能帮助解决气候变化问题。谢谢。

That was Steve Howard at the TED countdown summit in Nairobi, Kenya, in 2025.

以上是史蒂夫·霍华德于2025年在肯尼亚内罗毕举行的TED倒计时峰会上的发言。