Is the Al bubble about to burst - Henrik Zeberg

You're listening to TED Talks Daily where we bring you new ideas to spark your curiosity every day. I'm your host, Elise. It sometimes feels like it's the only thing anyone's talking about, but are we actually living through what may be the largest economic bubble in history, spanning AI, mega cap, Tech stocks and cryptocurrency? In this talk, financial analyst Heinrich Zeberg takes us on a journey through history's economic bubbles, from tulips and south sea shares to the dot com craze, showing how crowd psychology and speculation keep luring us in. By recognizing the patterns of this past, he says, we can better navigate today's frenzy.

您正在收听的是《TED每日演讲》，我们每天为您带来激发好奇心的新观点。我是主持人Elise。有时感觉这是人们谈论的唯一话题，但我们是否真的正身处一场可能是历史上最大的经济泡沫之中，这场泡沫涵盖了人工智能、大型科技股和加密货币？在这次演讲中，金融分析师海因里希·泽伯格带领我们回顾历史上的经济泡沫，从郁金香和南海股票到互联网狂热，展示了群体心理和投机行为是如何不断引诱我们参与的。他说，通过认识过去的这些模式，我们能更好地驾驭今天的狂热。

Don't think you're special. Don't think that you know more than we do. These are some of the statements from the law of 'Ye'. And I think that is dangerous. I think that is actually driving a common thinking that can bring, you know, hazard outcomes. And today I want to talk about something that may be a little more dry, which is Bitcoin, crypto, bubbles, financial bubbles.

别以为你很特别。别以为你知道的比我们多。这些是所谓“叶定律”的一些说法。我认为这很危险。我认为这实际上正在推动一种可能导致危险后果的从众思维。今天我想谈一个可能有点枯燥的话题，那就是比特币、加密货币、泡沫、金融泡沫。

Bitcoin is a venereal disease. Bitcoin is rat poison squared. These are not my words. These are the words of Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett, two of the most prominent investors this world has ever seen, most successful investors. Fifty billion in returns over their investment careers speaks for itself. So when they talk and speak, and unfortunately Mr. Munger is dead, but when they did talk or when they speak, we have to listen and I definitely listen.

比特币是一种性病。比特币是剧毒的鼠药。这不是我的话。这是查理·芒格和沃伦·巴菲特的话，他们是这个世界有史以来最杰出、最成功的两位投资者。他们投资生涯中获取的五百亿回报本身就说明了一切。所以当他们发言时——不幸的是芒格先生已去世——但当他们曾经或正在发言时，我们必须倾听，而我绝对是倾听的。

Bitcoin has, of course, had a fantastic journey. And we all need to appraise, of course, the amazing returns that that has given over the years. And, but when we hear about it, of course we have to wonder, why are the two most successful investors in the world talking about it like rat poison? And I can tell the personal story: in 2016 I was close to investing in Bitcoin, actually buying around maybe $150,000 worth of Bitcoin, which today would have had a value of around 20 to 25 million dollars. I didn't do it. I didn't get to it because of the difficulties in actually getting the money transferred from a bank to a wallet back then.

比特币的历程当然非常惊人。我们也都需要评估它这些年来带来的惊人回报。但是，当我们听到这些时，自然会疑惑，为什么世界上最成功的两位投资者会像谈论鼠药一样谈论它？我可以分享一个个人经历：2016年，我差点投资比特币，当时想买大约价值15万美元的比特币，放到今天价值约2000万到2500万美元。但我没做成。当时因为资金从银行转到钱包的实际操作困难，我没有完成交易。

But one of my friends actually did enter. Did take the crypto plunge? And he entered ethereum, which is another crypto. At the time it was at 50 cents. And he held on to it until the moment it actually reached around fourteen hundred dollars. So twenty eight hundred times. And he's not the only one that has done well when it comes to crypto. We've all heard of these lambo guys, or people that have jumped into something that seems, you know, ridiculous, only to see it go up 100 times. I don't know about you, but I definitely can feel the FOMO.

但我的一位朋友真的入场了。他投身加密货币了吗？他买入了以太坊，那是另一种加密货币。当时价格是50美分。他一直持有，直到价格涨到大约1400美元。也就是涨了2800倍。他并不是唯一在加密货币上赚到钱的人。我们都听说过那些开上兰博基尼的家伙，或者那些投身于看似荒谬的事物，结果却看到它上涨100倍的人。我不知道你们怎么想，但我绝对能感受到那种FOMO（错失恐惧）。

FOMO, what is that? FOMO: Fear Of Missing Out. Well, fear of missing out is something that is very deep in the human mind. It goes back to the times as we lived in hundreds, hunters and gatherers in groups. Being part of the group meant short food security, mating, and being outside was dangerous. And that's something we have taken on to us today also. If we are not part of the group, if you don't think alike like the 'Ye' law is also kind of commending, well, then it's dangerous. So fear of missing out FOMO is something that is deeply in us. And something that can make us maybe come up to conclusions or do things we don't necessarily would do if we were just ourselves.

FOMO，那是什么？FOMO：害怕错过。这种害怕错过的心理深植于人类思维。它可以追溯到我们数百人成群生活的狩猎采集时代。属于群体意味着食物有保障、能繁衍，而离群则很危险。这也是我们今天仍然秉承的心理。如果我们不属于群体，如果你的想法不一样——就像“叶定律”也在某种程度上推崇的那样——那么就很危险。所以，害怕错过的心理深植于我们内心。它可能让我们得出某些结论，或者做出如果我们仅凭自己本不会去做的事情。

And this is not something just maybe I as a stupid person or, you know, people that don't understand things do. Sir Isaac Newton is probably one of the most intelligent people that has ever lived. And in the 1700s, he actually were a victim of FOMO. So that was the time of the south sea bubble. Newton invested in, saw his stock rise, earned a good money, got out. But saw his friends actually staying in and becoming even more rich. He FOMO'd in, invested more, actually, a lot. And the bubble burst. He famously said afterwards, 'I can calculate the movement of heavenly bodies, but not of the madness of men.' So FOMO can make us do things we don't want, that can be against what we actually, um, yeah, what is good for us.

这并不只是像我这样的蠢人，或者不理解事物的人才会有的行为。艾萨克·牛顿爵士可能是人类历史上最聪明的人之一。而在18世纪，他实际上就成了FOMO的受害者。那是南海泡沫时期。牛顿投资了，看到股票上涨，赚了一笔钱，然后退出了。但他看到他的朋友们继续持有，甚至变得更富有。他因FOMO再次入场，投入了更多资金，实际上是很多钱。然后泡沫破裂了。他后来有句名言：“我能计算天体的运动，却无法计算人们的疯狂。”所以，FOMO会让我们做出我们本不想做的事，做出可能违背我们自身利益的事。

And that is actually also very visible in crowd dynamics, that is a part of it. When we talk about what is called a smoked room experiment, this is an experiment from 1968. Where a group of applicants to a job are invited into a room. Eight of the nine applicants are actors. They're told to stay seated, just work on their assignment no matter what happens. One person is a real applicant. All of a sudden while they do their application, smoke comes through the door. When there are other people, the other eight actors are in the room, 90% of the time people stay seated and do not report on the smoke on the potential hazardous event that is unfolding. But when that person, the applicant is alone, 75% of them got up and actually report on the smoke. So, crowd dynamics is something that changes the way we think. And that is what I actually also is part of why we see financial bubbles developing.

这在群体动力学中也表现得非常明显，这是其中一部分。当我们谈论所谓的“烟雾室实验”时，这是一个1968年的实验。一群求职者被邀请到一个房间。九名申请者中有八名是演员。他们被告知无论发生什么都要坐着完成自己的任务。一个人是真正的申请者。突然，在他们填写申请时，烟雾从门缝冒了进来。当有其他人在场时（即其他八名演员在房间里），90%的情况下人们会保持坐着，不会报告正在发生的潜在危险事件的烟雾。但是当那个人，也就是真正的申请者独自一人时，75%的人会站起来报告烟雾。所以，群体动力学会改变我们的思维方式。而这实际上也是我们看到金融泡沫形成的原因之一。

If you look at financial bubbles, then we saw one of the largest financial bubbles back in the 1630s, which was called the tulip mania. It was at a time where the tulip had been introduced from the Ottoman Empire, and for some reason it became the center of attention. People start buying it, price rose up and people kept buying this tulip or the tulips, not because of its utility, but because they thought they could sell it off the next day to earn money. The bubble burst at the peak of that hype, of that mania, and that's just to explain how mad it can become. One tulip bulb had the price of a house at that time.

看看历史上的金融泡沫，我们在17世纪30年代看到了最大的金融泡沫之一，被称为郁金香狂热。那时郁金香刚从奥斯曼帝国引入，出于某种原因成了众人瞩目的焦点。人们开始购买，价格上涨，人们不断买入郁金香球茎，不是因为它的效用，而是因为他们认为第二天就能卖掉赚钱。泡沫在炒作和狂热的顶峰破裂了，这正好说明了它能疯狂到什么程度。当时，一个郁金香球茎的价格相当于一栋房子。

Then we can fast forward to the 1840s Britain. And this was at a time where a fantastic technology came out. Steam engine, the locomotive, promised to change the world, and it certainly did. But the thing was, everybody thought that this is now changing ways, also, we earn money. Everybody FOMO'd in, thousands of companies rose up, were established. People thought this is a cannot lose opportunity. And again, we saw how a bubble burst and a lot of people actually lost money. And this was still because, even though there was a really fantastic technology that changed the world.

然后我们可以快进到19世纪40年代的英国。那是一个神奇技术出现的时代。蒸汽机、火车头承诺要改变世界，而它的确做到了。但问题是，每个人都认为这正在改变一切，包括赚钱的方式。每个人都因FOMO而入场，成千上万的公司涌现、成立。人们认为这是一个不容错过的机会。结果，我们再次看到了泡沫破裂，很多人实际上赔了钱。而这一切仍然发生了，尽管当时确实有一项改变了世界的奇妙技术。

We can then fast forward to the roaring twenties and try and imagine that was a time where we just saw that we had just seen the end of the first world war. We saw the electrification, we saw the technology of a car. We saw radio coming out; try imagine sitting there in your silent home, all of a sudden you can turn on the radio and you can hear people speaking to you. That was quite something. Turning on the light, getting yourself into the car and driving instead of having horses. We think we have seen technology, a leap in technology. Well, I can tell you that was special. And what happened then? Again, we saw people FOMOing into it because this is, of course, a new world, this new time, forget about the old world. And a massive bubble unfolded. Again, it burst and as we probably know, as we heard from school, we saw the stock market crashing, we saw the last depression in the US and elsewhere because of this FOMO.

然后我们可以快进到“咆哮的二十年代”，试着想象一下，那是一个我们刚刚目睹第一次世界大战结束的时代。我们看到了电气化，看到了汽车技术。我们看到收音机问世；试着想象一下，坐在寂静的家中，突然你可以打开收音机，听到有人对你说话。那真是了不起。打开电灯，自己坐进汽车驾驶，而不是骑马。我们认为我们见过技术的飞跃。好吧，我可以告诉你那很特别。然后发生了什么？再次，我们看到人们因FOMO而涌入，因为这当然是一个新世界，一个新时代，要忘掉旧世界。一个巨大的泡沫形成了。再次，它破裂了，正如我们可能从学校听到的那样，我们看到了股市崩盘，看到了美国和其他地方的大萧条，都是因为这种FOMO心理。

And then we can fast forward to something we may be able to remember, at least some of us with a little more gray hair. So that was the dot com bubble. And this was at a time where another new technology came out, just like the steam engine and the radio; now we have the Internet. And everybody again FOMO'd in. What's not to like? Fantastic opportunity. The world is new, new economy, they called it. And it's not no longer about how much you earn, it's about how much you spent on marketing. And there were a fantastic support to this. Wall Street were all behind it. Media were all behind it. There were media darlings like Webvan and Pets.com. So the media were all over this. Everybody was praising this new, fantastic and brave world. Did the Internet change the world? Absolutely. But is that the same as a promise that you cannot see that the market can crash or that people get exuberant? No.

然后我们可以快进到一些我们可能还记得的事情，至少我们中有些头发花白的人还记得。那就是互联网泡沫。那是在另一项新技术出现的时代，就像蒸汽机和收音机一样；现在我们有了互联网。每个人再次因FOMO而涌入。有什么理由不喜欢呢？绝佳的机会。他们称之为新世界、新经济。而且不再关乎你赚多少钱，而是关乎你在营销上花了多少钱。这得到了极大的支持。华尔街全力支持。媒体也全力支持。出现了像Webvan和Pets.com这样的媒体宠儿。所以媒体都在报道这个。每个人都在赞美这个崭新的、奇妙的、勇敢的世界。互联网改变了世界吗？毫无疑问。但这是否等同于承诺市场不会崩盘或人们不会过度狂热？不。

So now I want to talk about Bitcoin because I think Bitcoin is in the very definition of this financial bubble we have at this point: AI and crypto bubble. But before I do that, now we talk about 'gent'. But I'm from Denmark. In Denmark we have a famous fairy tales teller, Hans Christian Andersen, who had the story or told the story of the emperor's new clothes. And this is the story for the ones who don't understand don't know it already. Of course, this is about the emperor who lived in his empire. And then one day two fraudsters came to town and these were those were tailors. They would be able to make the most fantastic clothes that he had ever seen so he could stand out really nice. He was very vain and he of course got intrigued. There was though, however, this one caveat to it, that if people were especially stupid or were not good at what they do, they would not be able to see the clothes.

所以现在我想谈谈比特币，因为我认为比特币正是我们当前所处的金融泡沫——人工智能和加密货币泡沫——的典型定义。但在我谈这个之前，现在人们谈论“主流”。我来自丹麦。在丹麦，我们有一位著名的童话作家汉斯·克里斯蒂安·安徒生，他创作并讲述了《皇帝的新衣》的故事。这是讲给那些还不了解这个故事的人听的。当然，这个故事讲的是一位住在自己帝国里的皇帝。有一天，两个骗子来到镇上，他们是裁缝。他们说能做出他从未见过的最华丽的衣服，让他显得非常出色。他非常虚荣，自然就被吸引了。然而，有一个前提：如果一个人特别愚蠢或者不称职，他就看不见这件衣服。

And the emperor thought that was interesting, and he sent them off and they started to work the two fraudsters on their looms, weaving and making the clothes. The emperor got impatient and sent off his best advisor and said, can you go to see the check on how it's going. The advisor came to the fraudsters and couldn't see the clothes. And he thought, what is that going to tell of me? If I can't see that cloth, I'm not going to do that. So he went back to the emperor said, oh, that's amazing, sir, you love it. It's fantastic. And then the emperor thought, okay, I gotta go see myself, and he went. And again, he couldn't see the clothes. And he thought, what is that going to tell my people about who I am and how I run the country? So what he did was again, like his advisor, to simply just keep silent.

皇帝觉得很有趣，就打发他们走了，这两个骗子开始在织布机上工作，编织制作衣服。皇帝等不及了，派了他最好的顾问去，说：“你去看看进展如何。”顾问来到骗子那里，看不见衣服。他想：“这要是说出来会显得我怎样？如果我看不见那布料，我可不能那么做。”于是他回去对皇帝说：“哦，太棒了，陛下，您会喜欢的。太神奇了。”然后皇帝想，好吧，我得亲自去看看，他就去了。结果，他也看不见衣服。他想：“这要让我的臣民怎么看待我，怎么看待我治理国家的能力？”于是他也像他的顾问一样，选择了保持沉默。

And the day came where he was supposed to walk down the street, as we do when we get new clothes, we like to show it off. And he was. The fraudsters helped him put on the clothes, and he walked down the street. And everybody all in the crowds were saying how fantastic this was, especially the elite. 'Wow, amazing garment.' Until the little boy cried out, 'But why isn't he wearing any clothes?' Now, why I'm saying that? What is the morale? Of course, that sometimes it takes an innocent mind, nai*e mind maybe, to point out what is the obvious.

到了他应该上街游行的日子，就像我们买了新衣服喜欢炫耀一样。他也是如此。骗子们帮他“穿上”衣服，他走上了街头。人群中所有人都在说这有多么奇妙，尤其是精英们。“哇，令人惊叹的礼服。”直到一个小男孩喊出来：“可是他什么衣服都没穿啊！”现在我为什么说这个？寓意是什么？当然是，有时候需要一个天真的、或许幼稚的心灵，来指出显而易见的事实。

And now I want to turn to Bitcoin. Because, as I said, we currently have the largest financial bubble that we have ever seen. I had just told you about four massive bubbles and I'm claiming we have one that is even bigger. Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger had a way of looking at the market capitalization to GDP. The higher it is, the bigger the bubble. 2000 massive bubble, we laughed at it afterwards, it was 136%. 2007 it was at 107%. This is where we are today, 226%.

现在我想转向比特币。因为，正如我所说，我们目前正经历着我们所见过的最大的金融泡沫。我刚给你们讲了四个巨大的泡沫，而我断言我们现在有一个更大的。沃伦·巴菲特和查理·芒格有一个观察市值与GDP比率的方法。比率越高，泡沫越大。2000年的巨大泡沫，我们后来都笑话它，那时是136%。2007年是107%。而我们现在所处的位置是226%。

And we can just look at some of the businesses that are doing well today, as I said, in crypto and AI bubble. Nvidia, hello? I mean, you don't need to know much about finance to see that, you know, ninety four, zero percent in a matter of 15 years. That's a pretty frothy. Nasdaq, Bitcoin. Bitcoin is up 1 to 2 million percent since 2012.

我们可以看看今天一些表现良好的企业，正如我所说，是在加密货币和人工智能泡沫中的企业。英伟达，看到了吗？我的意思是，你不需要懂太多金融知识就能看出，在15年左右的时间里上涨了不知道多少倍（意指涨幅巨大）。那是相当泡沫了。纳斯达克，比特币。比特币自2012年以来上涨了100万到200万个百分点。

So now people say, yeah, but you know, it can keep going up. Well, if you have a bubble and it bursts, and the Nasdaq and Bitcoin are following each other very, very closely. And you also know that Nasdaq actually tumbled, crashed 85% after 2001 in that massive bubble that is way smaller than what we have today. Now guess what is going to happen to Bitcoin when Bitcoin crashes much, much more every time we see a decline in Nasdaq. I say Bitcoin is going to crash by 95%. That's not what we hear when we hear the media, the academia, the crowd and the emperor's new clothes talking about this.

所以现在人们说，是啊，但你知道，它可以继续涨。好吧，如果你有一个泡沫并且它破裂了，而纳斯达克和比特币的走势又是非常非常紧密相关的。你也知道纳斯达克在2001年那次巨大的泡沫之后确实暴跌了85%，而那个泡沫远比我们今天的要小。现在猜猜比特币会怎么样——每次我们看到纳斯达克下跌，比特币都会跌得更惨。我说比特币会暴跌95%。当我们听到媒体、学术界、大众和那些“穿着新衣的皇帝”谈论此时，听到的可不是这个。

And then we also have a situation where we have a slowdown in the economy. It's very visible. A recession is where bubbles burst. And when a bubble burst, we're gonna, you're gonna hurt if you have those assets that are crashing. So let's say on right, we have a recession coming. And Nasdaq dropped by 85% in 2001; we have a larger bubble, this time much larger. What is going to happen if the economy falls into a recession and we see Nasdaq crashing? In this AI bubble, we have, I say, Bitcoin, crypto, it's a massive bubble. It doesn't take away that there is a technology, just like in the locomotive steam engine and also what we saw with the radio and so on. But it's not the same as guaranteed returns. And I think we're going to see this in a not too distant future. It's a bubble that is going to burst, I think. Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger are right. Bitcoin crypto is like a venereal disease. Thank you.

而且我们现在还面临经济放缓的情况。这是非常明显的。经济衰退是泡沫破裂的时候。当泡沫破裂时，如果你持有那些正在暴跌的资产，你会受到伤害。那么假设一下，经济衰退即将来临。纳斯达克在2001年下跌了85%；我们现在有一个更大的泡沫，这次要大得多。如果经济陷入衰退，我们看到纳斯达克崩盘，会发生什么？在这个人工智能泡沫中，我认为比特币、加密货币是一个巨大的泡沫。这并不能否定技术本身的存在，就像蒸汽机车和收音机等技术一样。但这不等于保证有回报。我认为我们将在不远的将来看到这一点。我认为这是一个即将破裂的泡沫。沃伦·巴菲特和查理·芒格是对的。比特币加密货币就像一种性病。谢谢。

That was Heinrich Zeberg at TEDx Lila Torg in Malmo, Sweden, in 2025.

以上是海因里希·泽伯格于2025年在瑞典马尔默TEDx Lila Torg的演讲。